A new analysis reveals that Meta and Google are positioned to be the primary beneficiaries if TikTok faces a U.S. ban, with the two tech giants expected to capture nearly half of TikTok’s displaced ad spending.
The Ad Dollar Redistribution
The potential reallocation of TikTok’s advertising budget would significantly benefit Meta’s platforms:
- Instagram would capture 22.1% of reallocated spending
- Facebook would receive 17.1% of the ad dollars
- YouTube would gain 10.7% of the displaced budget
Other Platform Benefits
The redistribution extends beyond the tech giants:
- Social platforms (Snapchat, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Reddit, and X) would collectively gain 18.3%
- Connected TV and other digital media companies would receive approximately 30%
Strategic Positioning
Both Meta and Google have strategically prepared for this scenario through their TikTok-like features:
- Meta’s Reels now accounts for over 50% of user time on Instagram
- YouTube Shorts reaches more than 2 billion logged-in monthly users
Advertisers are already preparing alternative spending plans for the ban implementation as early as June 18, 2025 after the most recent extension.
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